Macro-modelling the interactions between economic growth, energy and debt

Coupling of economic and financial models, energy and macro-economy, multi-criteria optimization and risk scoring.

On the one hand, several research publications have recently underlined the necessity for methodological innovations in order to increase the predictive potential of sovereign risks assessments. Modeling, as it allows for multiple scenarios and risks weighting, appears as one of the promising technical options to investigate.

On the other hand, a growing number of economists suggest that energy should be integrated as a production factor alongside labour and capital while forecasting wealth production. They thus pave the way for the necessary consideration of quantitative economic, fiscal, and budgetary impacts of much diversified energy resilience situations among sovereign borrowers.

Beyond Ratings is a founding partner of the RISKERGY R&D project. It brings together research teams with international expertise to investigate these domains: coupling of economic and financial models, energy and macro-economy, multi-criteria optimization and risk scoring. Among them, Caisse des Dépôts Group plays a major role in the R&D project, as experts from its risk and asset management departments are involved.

The developed methodology breaks new grounds in two ways:

  • It mobilizes macroeconomic modeling to assess sovereign risks thanks to a hybridation with budgetary and fiscal models at the national level.
  • It develops macroeconomic models integrating energy scenarios alongside classical options on labour and capital.

The RISKERGY R&D project was launched in April 2013 with a 3.8M€ budget over three years. It has been awarded innovation labels by two major R&D clusters in France: Pôle Finance Innovation and Tenerrdis.

You can dowload here results of academic work by Gaël Giraud on “How Dependent is Growth from Primary Energy? Dependency ratio of Energy in 33 Countries (1970-2011)“. Gaël Giraud is RISKERGY’s Scientific Coordinator.

Academic Institutions


CIRED is a Multidisciplinary Research Center on economics’s analysis and modeling

CIRED is an international research center on environment and development located in Paris, comprising about 60 people. It was created in 1973 by Professor Ignacy Sachs to study the tensions between environment, long-term management of natural resources and economic development. Its works on eco-development involve the study of consumption patterns, technological choices and land uses.

CIRED is part of major international research networks, notably EMFIAMC and LCS-R net. It has long-standing ties with major research groups on environment and  development: PIKFEEMUKERCIIASA, PBL (Europe), Stanford U.MITRFF & PNNL (USA), NIES (Japan), COPPE (Brazil), IIMD (India), ACPC (Ethiopia).

CIRED provides expertise to international organizations: EU, World Bank, IEA, OECD, UNEP. It has a major involvement in the IPCC process since AR2. CIRED has four lead authors in IPCC AR5. 


CERMICS is a laboratory of École des Ponts ParisTech, hosting joint research teams with INRIA and University of Marne-la-Vallée.

The scientific activity of CERMICS covers a wide range of applied mathematics and consists of three main research domains: scientific computing, optimization, and applied probability.

In scientific computing, CERMICS is interested in applications related to the convection of pollutants in the soil, to the surface-water and groundwater hydrology; in this area, CERMICS develops numerical methods based on finite elements. It is also interested in a a wide variety of topics connected to the modeling and numerical simulation of physical phenomena, in particular in molecular and multiscale modeling. CERMICS studies both theoretical aspects related to the mathematical properties of models and the practical aspects of algorithmic implementation.

In optimization, CERMICS studies control of dynamical systems, and in particular numerical methods and stochastic optimization. It is also interested in risk constraints, transport and management of sustainable resources.

In applied probability, CERMICS studies numerical methods, probabilistic representation of solution of PDE, probabilistic modeling in general, with applications in physics, biology and financial mathematics.


LABEX-ReFi is a newly-founded “Laboratoire d’Excellence” sponsored by public authorities in the field of financial regulation. LABEX-ReFi is backed by leading institutions: Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne UniversityESCP-Europe, CNAM, and ENA.

LABEX ReFi’s activities break down between academic research, policy papers and teaching, with a main focus on the following domains: prudential financial regulation, systemic risks, role of credit rating agencies and epistemology of the current financial crisis.

LABEX ReFi’s activities are monitored by a scientific committee and an Advisory committee gathering regulators and professionals from the financial industry.

This ten-year project will give the unique opportunity to

  • Strengthen, through research, its expertise on the area of financial regulation, financial crises, risk management, as well as on other related topics,
  • Propose new statistical and econometric tools,
  • Provide an educational offer on these topics, and
  • Act as an advisor with regard to the regulator.

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